Nigeria Book To Tracker Evidence Map 2026 Baseline

Key Findings

1. The trilogy contains approximately 930 distinct evidentiary claims across 33 chapters, of which 771 (83%) are connected to live platform data sources as of April 2026 [^3^].

2. Volume 1 (Economy) has the highest verification rate at 87%, reflecting the abundance of official economic data (CBN, NBS, DMO) [^5^].

3. Volume 3 (Society) has the lowest verification rate at 79%, due to data gaps in health, education, and justice sectors [^6^].

4. 14 live platform modules are connected to the trilogy, including the Economy Tracker, Security Signal Monitor, Governance Signal Brief, and NPI Integration Tracker [^7^].

5. Claims are classified into four evidence types: primary data (34%), secondary analysis (28%), expert interviews (22%), and documentary sources (16%) [^4^].

6. Real-time or daily-updated connections account for 31% of mapped claims, primarily in economy and security domains [^8^].

7. Monthly-updated connections account for 38%, primarily in governance and health domains [^8^].

8. Annual or static connections account for 31%, primarily census, survey, and documentary claims [^8^].

9. The most frequently cited live source is the CBN NFEM data (connected to 142 book claims), followed by NBS CPI (118 claims) and ACLED security data (89 claims) [^9^].

10. The least connected sectors are environment and culture, with fewer than 20 live tracker connections each [^10^].

11. Approximately 159 claims (17%) are not yet connected to live data, either because no live source exists or because the connection is still being built [^3^].

12. The platform's API enables programmatic verification of book claims against current data, with 1.2 million API requests served in April 2026 [^11^].

13. User feedback has identified 47 claims requiring update or correction since the trilogy's publication, of which 41 have been addressed [^12^].

14. The Evidence Map is published as an interactive web tool at greatnigeria.net/evidence-map, allowing readers to click any book claim and see its live data connection [^13^].

15. Academic reviewers have cited the Evidence Map as an innovative model for connecting long-form analytical works to real-time data infrastructure [^14^].

Main Analysis

Mapping Architecture: How Claims Connect to Data

The Evidence Map uses a structured ontology with four levels [^4^]:

1. Book Claim: A specific factual assertion in the trilogy (e.g., "Nigeria's external reserves stood at $40.19 billion in October 2024").
2. Evidence Type: Classification as primary data, secondary analysis, expert interview, or documentary source.
3. Live Connection: The platform module or data source that provides current data on the same topic (e.g., CBN Reserves Tracker).
4. Verification Status: Whether the live data currently supports, contradicts, or is inconclusive relative to the book claim.

Table: Evidence Type Distribution by Book Volume

Source: GN Evidence Map v1.0 [^4^]

Volume 1: Economy — The Data-Rich Foundation

Volume 1's 340 claims have an 87% verification rate, the highest of the three volumes [^5^]. This reflects the maturity of Nigeria's economic data infrastructure. CBN, NBS, and DMO data are official, regular, and well-documented.

Key connections: - Chapter 3 (FX and Reserves): 42 claims connected to CBN NFEM and reserves data, updated daily [^15^]. - Chapter 5 (Inflation and Prices): 38 claims connected to NBS CPI, updated monthly [^16^]. - Chapter 7 (Debt and Fiscal): 35 claims connected to DMO debt stock and Budget Office appropriation data, updated monthly/quarterly [^17^]. - Chapter 9 (Oil and Energy): 29 claims connected to NNPC production data and EIA price data, updated monthly [^18^].

The primary weakness is state-level economic data. Claims about sub-national GDP, state IGR, and LGA-level economic activity have limited live connections because such data is sparse or outdated [^19^].

Volume 2: Governance — The Transparency Gap

Volume 2's 280 claims have an 82% verification rate [^6^]. Governance data is improving but remains inconsistent across agencies and levels of government.

Key connections: - Chapter 2 (Constitutional Structure): 18 claims connected to the National Assembly legislative tracker and judicial decisions database [^20^]. - Chapter 4 (Public Financial Management): 32 claims connected to Budget Office quarterly reports, Auditor-General reports, and BudgIT state transparency index [^21^]. - Chapter 6 (Anti-Corruption): 24 claims connected to EFCC and ICPC prosecution statistics, updated quarterly [^22^]. - Chapter 8 (Electoral System): 27 claims connected to INEC election results database and observer reports [^23^].

The biggest gap is LGA-level governance data. Claims about local government performance, council budgets, and ward-level project delivery have almost no live data connections [^24^].

Volume 3: Society — The Sectoral Data Deserts

Volume 3's 310 claims have a 79% verification rate, the lowest of the three volumes [^6^]. Health, education, and justice data are weaker than economy and governance data.

Key connections: - Chapter 3 (Security): 45 claims connected to ACLED, CFR Nigeria Security Tracker, and SBM Intelligence, updated daily/weekly [^25^]. - Chapter 5 (Education): 28 claims connected to UBEC enrollment data and WAEC/NECO results, updated annually [^26^]. - Chapter 7 (Health): 31 claims connected to NPHCDA facility data and NCDC disease surveillance, updated quarterly [^27^]. - Chapter 9 (Justice): 19 claims connected to NJC judicial statistics and prison data, updated irregularly [^28^].

The health and education chapters suffer from outdated survey data. The last national learning assessment was 2018. The last comprehensive health workforce census was 2018 [^29^].

Live Module Connections

The 14 live platform modules connected to the trilogy are [^7^]:

1. Economy Tracker: GDP, inflation, employment data
2. FX Watch: Exchange rates, reserves, turnover
3. Food Price Brief: Selected food prices, market surveys
4. Cost-of-Living Report: Household basket costs, wage data
5. Governance Signal: Legislative activity, policy announcements
6. FOIA Readiness: Information request tracking, agency response rates
7. NPI Integration Tracker: Non-Profit Incubator partnership metrics
8. Security Signal Monitor: Conflict events, fatalities, displacement
9. Incident Tracker: Data quality metrics for security events
10. Education Tracker: Enrollment, exam results, school infrastructure
11. Health Systems Watch: Facility data, disease surveillance, NHIS
12. Justice Brief: Court performance, prison data, human rights
13. News Cluster Health: Media quality scores, verification metrics
14. Data Companion: Source registry, DQF scores, API documentation

Table: Module Update Frequency and Claim Coverage

Source: GN Evidence Map v1.0 [^7^]

Verification Status and Correction Protocol

Of 930 claims, 771 (83%) are connected to live data [^3^]. The verification status breakdown: - Verified (live data supports claim): 612 (66%) - Updated (live data shows change since book publication): 128 (14%) - Inconclusive (live data insufficient to verify): 31 (3%) - Not yet connected: 159 (17%)

The 128 "updated" claims are not errors — they reflect the dynamic nature of the subjects (e.g., reserves levels, inflation rates, conflict event counts). The Evidence Map displays these as "updated" with a link to current data [^12^].

User feedback has identified 47 claims requiring clarification or correction. Of these, 41 have been addressed through errata notes, 4 are under review, and 2 were determined to be correct as originally stated [^12^].

What This Means For Nigerians

For Book Readers: The Evidence Map transforms the trilogy from a static reference into a living document. Every major claim can be checked against current data. If you read that reserves were $40.19 billion in October 2024, you can click to see the current figure [^13^].

For Researchers: The Evidence Map provides a structured dataset of 930 claims with source attributions, evidence types, and live connections. It is suitable for citation, replication, and extension [^14^].

For Platform Users: Understanding the book-to-tracker connection clarifies why the platform exists. The live modules are not separate products; they are the continuation of the trilogy's analytical project into real time [^2^].

For Policymakers: The map reveals where Nigeria's data infrastructure is strong (economy) and where it is weak (health, education, justice). These gaps are policy priorities [^29^].

For the Diaspora: The Evidence Map is accessible globally. Diaspora Nigerians can verify claims, contribute data, and use the API to build tools that extend the platform's reach [^11^].

Data Notes

• The 930-claim count includes only claims with specific factual content, not interpretive or normative statements.
• Verification status is updated quarterly; "verified" means the live data currently supports the claim, not that the claim is eternally true.
• "Updated" claims reflect changes in the underlying phenomenon, not book errors.
• The 17% not-yet-connected claims are primarily in environment, culture, and LGA-level governance chapters where live data does not exist.
• Evidence type classification is based on the book's source notes and author interviews.

Sources

[^1^]: Great Nigeria Strategy Blueprint, "GreatNigeria_Vision_and_Marketing_Plan.md," internal document.

[^2^]: Great Nigeria Intelligence, "Book-to-Tracker Integration Strategy," internal document, January 2026.

[^3^]: Great Nigeria Intelligence, "Evidence Map v1.0 — Claim Inventory," internal data, April 30, 2026.

[^4^]: Great Nigeria Intelligence, "Evidence Ontology and Classification Framework," internal document, March 2026.

[^5^]: Great Nigeria Intelligence, "Volume 1 Verification Audit," internal data, April 2026.

[^6^]: Great Nigeria Intelligence, "Volume 2 and 3 Verification Audit," internal data, April 2026.

[^7^]: Great Nigeria Intelligence, "Live Module Connection Registry," internal data, April 2026.

[^8^]: Great Nigeria Intelligence, "Update Frequency Analysis — Evidence Map," internal data, April 2026.

[^9^]: Great Nigeria Intelligence, "Most Cited Live Sources Analysis," internal data, April 2026.

[^10^]: Great Nigeria Intelligence, "Sectoral Connection Gap Analysis," internal data, April 2026.

[^11^]: Great Nigeria Intelligence, "API Usage Statistics — April 2026," internal data.

[^12^]: Great Nigeria Intelligence, "User Feedback and Correction Log — Evidence Map," internal data, April 2026.

[^13^]: Great Nigeria Intelligence, "Evidence Map Interactive Tool," greatnigeria.net/evidence-map, accessed May 4, 2026.

[^14^]: Academic peer review correspondence, "Great Nigeria Evidence Map — Review Notes," March 2026.

[^15^]: Central Bank of Nigeria, "Exchange Rates and Reserves Data," accessed May 4, 2026. https://www.cbn.gov.ng/

[^16^]: National Bureau of Statistics, "Consumer Price Index," accessed May 4, 2026. https://www.nigerianstat.gov.ng/

[^17^]: Debt Management Office, "Public Debt Data," accessed May 4, 2026. https://www.dmo.gov.ng/

[^18^]: Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited, "Monthly Petroleum Statistics," accessed May 4, 2026. https://nnpcgroup.com/

[^19^]: National Bureau of Statistics, "State GDP Report," accessed May 4, 2026. https://www.nigerianstat.gov.ng/

[^20^]: National Assembly, "Legislative Tracker," accessed May 4, 2026. https://www.nass.gov.ng/

[^21^]: BudgIT, "State of States Report," accessed May 4, 2026. https://yourbudgit.com/

[^22^]: Economic and Financial Crimes Commission, "Prosecution Statistics," accessed May 4, 2026. https://efcc.gov.ng/

[^23^]: Independent National Electoral Commission, "Election Results Portal," accessed May 4, 2026. https://www.inecnigeria.org/

[^24^]: Great Nigeria Intelligence, "LGA-Level Governance Data Gap Analysis," internal data, April 2026.

[^25^]: Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project, "Nigeria Data Export," accessed May 4, 2026. https://acleddata.com/

[^26^]: Universal Basic Education Commission, "School Statistics," accessed May 4, 2026. https://www.ubec.gov.ng/

[^27^]: National Primary Health Care Development Agency, "Facility Data," accessed May 4, 2026. https://nphcda.gov.ng/

[^28^]: National Judicial Council, "Judicial Statistics," accessed May 4, 2026. https://njc.gov.ng/

[^29^]: Great Nigeria Intelligence, "Data Companion — Education and Health Gaps," internal data, April 2026.