Nigeria Food Price Pressure Brief May 2026

Key Findings

1. Annual food inflation has decelerated dramatically, but the rebasing effect accounts for much of the apparent improvement. NBS food inflation fell from 25.22% in March 2025 to 14.31% in March 2026 — an 10.91 percentage point drop [^1^]. However, the CPI was rebased in January 2025 with 2024 as the new base year and 2023 as the weight reference period, replacing a basket last updated in 2009 [^14^]. The NBS itself cautioned that December 2025 data would show an artificial spike due to base effects, and year-on-year comparisons only become fully meaningful from March 2026 onward [^15^].

2. Monthly food inflation remains punishingly high. At 4.17% month-on-month in March 2026, food prices were still rising rapidly within a single month — equivalent to an annualized rate above 60% if sustained [^2^]. While this was down from February's 4.69%, it represents the second consecutive month of elevated monthly food inflation after January's brief relief.

3. The March 2026 headline inflation uptick ended a 12-month disinflation trend. Headline CPI rose to 15.38% from 15.06% in February, the first increase since April 2025 [^3^]. The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) had been targeting a slowdown to around 13% by 2027; this reversal complicates monetary policy calibration [^16^].

4. Rural Nigeria is experiencing a food-price shock. Rural month-on-month inflation surged from 0.71% in February to 6.73% in March — a 6.02 percentage point jump [^6^]. Rural year- on-year inflation at 17.22% also exceeds urban inflation at 14.64%. This pattern suggests transport-cost pass-through, farm-gate price weakness relative to retail, and lean-season pre- positioning are hitting agricultural communities hardest.

5. State-level food inflation disparities are extreme. Bayelsa's 33.35% year-on- year food inflation is nearly eight times Kano's 4.29% [^4^]. On a month-on-month basis, Sokoto's 11.78% is more than 130 times Katsina's 0.09% [^5^]. These gaps reflect differences in supply access, conflict exposure, transport connectivity, market structure, and seasonal availability.

6. Staple commodity prices showed mixed movements in early 2026. NBS Selected Food Price Watch data for January 2026 showed significant year-on-year declines for brown beans (48.65%), white garri (39.10%), yellow garri (39.52%), and imported rice (12.31%) compared to January 2025 [^17^]. However, yam prices rose 3.74% year-on-year, and by March 2026, NBS attributed monthly food movements to rising prices of yam, fresh ginger, cassava tuber, groundnuts, Irish potatoes, ogbono, tomatoes, and cassava flour [^1^].

7. The 2026 lean season projection is the worst in a decade. WFP and Cadre Harmonisé analyses project nearly 35 million Nigerians will face acute and severe food insecurity during June–August 2026 [^7^][^8^]. In Borno, Adamawa, and Yobe (BAY) states, 5.8 million people are projected to experience Phase 3+ food insecurity [^18^]. This is not a market-price issue alone; it reflects conflict, displacement, destroyed food reserves, and collapsed livelihoods.

8. Humanitarian funding has collapsed at the worst possible moment. WFP warned in January 2026 that for the first time in Nigeria, its assistance would be limited to only 72,000 people due to funding shortfalls, down from nearly two million previously reached [^10^]. The 2026 Nigeria Humanitarian Needs and Response Plan was only 5% funded as of mid-April 2026 [^18^]. Three million children under five are projected to suffer from severe acute malnutrition in 2026 [^19^].

9. Global fertilizer and fuel prices are spiking due to Middle East conflict. The World Bank flagged that urea prices rose 46% month-on-month in February–March 2026, with fertilizer affordability metrics at record lows entering the planting season [^12^][^20^]. In Nigeria, gasoline prices rose 45% between February and March, while diesel approached ₦1,800 per litre by end-March [^13^].

10. Farmers face a profitability squeeze that threatens 2026 output. Despite lower staple prices in late 2025 and early 2026, farmers struggled with soaring fertilizer, herbicide, and machinery costs [^21^]. Many scaled back production or abandoned maize and rice cultivation; this contraction in planting decisions is expected to cause supply shortages and renewed price pressures in 2026 [^22^].

11. The NBS CPI rebasing improves methodological relevance but complicates trend analysis. The new basket expanded from ~740 to 934 items, added 404 new products, removed 201 outdated items, and shifted the weight reference to 2023 [^14^][^15^]. Food and non-alcoholic beverages weight fell by 22.8%, while restaurant/accommodation services weight rose by 975% [^23^]. Analysts must treat pre- and post-rebase comparisons with caution.

12. Core inflation is now higher than food inflation, signaling broadening pressure. Core inflation (excluding volatile agricultural produce and energy) stood at 16.21% year- on-year in March 2026, above food inflation's 14.31% [^2^]. Core month-on-month inflation surged to 4.03% from 0.89% in February, indicating that price pressures are spreading beyond food and energy into services and manufactured goods [^5^].

13. Nigeria is projected to record one of the largest surges in food insecurity globally in 2026. The Global Report on Food Crises (April 2026) found that approximately 4.1 million additional Nigerians could fall into acute food insecurity in 2026, placing the country among those with the largest increases worldwide [^24^].

14. The three major contributors to headline year-on-year inflation are food, restaurants/accommodation, and transport. Food and non-alcoholic beverages contributed 5.55 percentage points, restaurants and accommodation services 3.26 percentage points, and transport 1.80 percentage points [^1^]. These categories together explain the majority of inflationary pressure.

15. Policy responses remain fragmented and underfunded. While the government has pointed to improved non-oil revenues, exchange-rate stabilization, and agricultural mechanization programs such as the Renewed Hope Agricultural Mechanisation Programme (RHAMP) launched in June 2025 [^25^], the gap between macroeconomic stabilization and household welfare remains wide. Minister of Finance Wale Edun acknowledged that Nigerians still need to feel the impact of reforms, especially with global pressures pushing up fuel and food prices [^13^].