Chapter 1: The Cost of a Bag of Beans

Poster Line: "A bag of beans cost N18,000 in 2019. It costs N120,000 today. Your salary did not multiply by seven. Your hunger did."

The Story

Mama Nkechi is fifty-two years old. She has sold rice at Daleko Market in Lagos for thirty years. She keeps a small notebook. Every price, every year, written by hand.

"2015," she says, tapping the page. "Bag of foreign rice: N8,000."

She turns the page. "2019: N18,000. Customers complained, but they bought."

Another page. "2022: N35,000. People started buying half bags."

She stops at the last page. Her voice drops low. "January 2025: N120,000. Mama Chijioke, my best customer, used to buy five bags for her restaurant. Last week she bought one. One bag. For a restaurant."

Mama Nkechi closes her notebook. Daleko Market used to hum with buyers by 7 a.m. Now, at 10 a.m., half the stalls stay closed. There are no customers to open for.

"Politicians come here during campaigns," she says. "They promise to bring rice price down. Then they win. And the price goes up. Every single time."

She opens to a page she drew in red pen. One side lists election years: 2015, 2019, 2023. The other side lists rice prices: N8,000, N28,000, N65,000. The line goes up like a staircase to nowhere.

"I tell my customers: the price of this rice is not set in the farm. It is set in the polling booth. They look at me like I am crazy. Then they go home and pray that God will bring the price down."

She shrugs. "God did not raise the price. The man they voted for did."

Mama Nkechi is not an economist. She has never read a Central Bank circular. But she knows something that no professor ever learned at 5 a.m. while watching a mother count out crumpled notes for half a bag of rice. The distance from a voter's thumbprint to a family's empty pot is exactly one bad election long.

This is a fictionalized illustration based on documented patterns.

The Fact

A family of four in Lagos spent N30,000 monthly on food in 2019. That same family needs N160,000 to N190,000 today for the same basket. That is a 433% to 533% increase. Not over twenty years. Over five years. Between one election and the next.

The National Bureau of Statistics tracks this. Food inflation hit 40.87% in mid-2024. Headline inflation reached 33.24%, a near three-decade high. These are not just numbers on paper. They are mothers skipping meals so their children can eat.

Look at the table. See your own kitchen in these numbers.

A 50kg bag of imported rice went from N18,000 in 2019 to N110,000–N120,000 in 2025. Local rice went from N15,000 to N95,000–N105,000. Beans jumped from N18,000 to N100,000–N120,000. Garri — garri, the poor man's food — went from N6,000 to N32,000–N38,000. Vegetable oil: N2,400 to N16,000–N18,000. Yam: N8,000 to N55,000–N65,000.

Your salary did not grow by 500%. But your food bill did.

Research from the World Bank says 139 million Nigerians will live on less than $3 per day by 2025. The poorest families already spend 83% of their income on food. When food prices double, they do not adjust by buying cheaper brands. They adjust by eating less.

The gender burden is real. In 85% of Nigerian households, women are the primary food purchasers. When prices rise, it is the mother's mental arithmetic that absorbs the shock. She calculates portions. She extends soup with water. She reduces protein days. She eats last and least.

Why did this happen? The naira collapsed. From N360 per dollar in 2019 to over N1,500 per dollar in 2024. Nigeria imports significant amounts of food and farm inputs. When the naira falls, every imported item becomes more expensive.

The Central Bank under Governor Emefiele maintained artificial exchange rates that created opportunities for speculators while disrupting supply chains for real food importers. The Anchor Borrowers' Programme disbursed over N1 trillion for farm inputs. Independent assessments found much of it disappeared through political patronage. Fake farmers collected inputs. Real farmers received nothing.

Then there is state policy. A bag of rice costs N58,000 at the farm gate in Kebbi State. By the time it reaches the market in Kebbi town, it costs N78,000. That is a 38% markup for transport and levies.

But here is the kicker. Benue State is called "the food basket of the nation." A bag of rice in Benue costs N78,000. In Lagos — a concrete jungle that grows almost no rice — the same bag costs N72,000. Lagos has better roads, better security, better markets. Benue has fertile soil but farmer-herder conflict has turned the food basket into a food desert.

Your governor determines whether food is affordable or a luxury. Security, roads, storage, farm extension services — all within gubernatorial control. The governor who invests in these delivers lower food prices. The governor who neglects them delivers hunger.

The market women feel this most. Sixty-five percent of food traders in Nigeria are women. Eighty percent operate at micro-scale with less than N100,000 in inventory. When prices rise, customers buy less, so traders move less inventory. Mama Nkechi used to sell two to three bags of rice a day. Now she sells half a bag. She still pays for the stall, the levy, the transport. She earns less selling more expensive rice.

The N5,000 vote-buying offer — standard currency in Nigerian elections — now purchases about 4kg of rice. That is enough for two family meals. The politician who offers N5,000 for a vote that authorizes four years of food inflation is not buying support. He is buying the right to impoverish your family at a 51,820% negative return.

Think about your own kitchen. How much did a derica of rice cost five years ago? How much today? How much did a loaf of bread cost? A bottle of vegetable oil? A tuber of yam? Every increase traces back to a decision made by someone you voted for — or voted against — or stayed home and let others vote for.

What This Means For You

• Every time you buy a bag of rice, you are paying the price of bad exchange rate policy.
• Every time your mother skips a meal so you can eat, you are living the consequence of a vote cast without thinking.
• The N5,000 bribe a politician gives you on election day buys two family meals. The bad vote it secures costs you N180,000 extra on food every year.
• You have a choice: vote for the candidate with a food plan, or keep paying the hunger tax.
• If your family spends N160,000 monthly on food today when N30,000 was enough five years ago, that N130,000 difference is your voting receipt.
• The market woman who sells you rice votes too. Her vote affects the price of your next bag. Make sure she knows what her vote costs her.

The Data

The Lie

Politicians say: "It is global inflation. Everyone is suffering."

This is a lie. Ethiopia faces worse conflict and similar climate problems but had lower food inflation than Nigeria in 2023. Kenya experienced the same global wheat shock but contained food prices better. The difference is governance.

Politicians say: "We are working on it. Be patient."

They have been "working on it" for twenty-four years. Rice self-sufficiency was first promised in 1999. In 2025, Nigeria still imports food worth over $10 billion annually. The work never starts because the workers are never chosen for competence.

Politicians say: "Vote for me and I will bring food prices down."

The same politicians said this in 2019, 2015, 2011, 2007, and 2003. Food prices went up after every single election. The promise is a meal ticket for them. The bill is a debt sentence for you.

The Truth

The price of rice is not set in the farm. It is set in the polling booth. Every food price increase has a governance address. The president appoints the Central Bank governor whose naira policy determines import costs. The governor decides whether agricultural extension workers reach farmers. The senator votes on the budget that funds rural roads or lets them wash away. Food inflation is not a weather event. It is a policy event. And policy is chosen by voters.

Your Action

Citizen Verdict — Do These Five Things This Week:

1. Write down how much your family spent on food in 2019 and how much you spend now. Calculate the difference. That is your personal hunger tax.

2. Ask three friends how much they spend on food monthly. Compare notes. Build awareness.

3. Find out your state's budget for agriculture. If it is less than 5% of total spending, your governor has no food plan.

4. When a politician promises cheap food, ask: "What is your specific plan for farm inputs, storage, and roads?" No specifics means no plan.

5. Register for your PVC if you have not. A hungry voter with a PVC is dangerous to bad politicians. A hungry voter without one is only dangerous to himself.

WhatsApp Bomb

"A bag of beans: N18,000 in 2019. N120,000 in 2025. My salary: N80,000 to N95,000. Who won that election? Not me. Not my children. Not my pot."