Nigeria Diagnosis Data Companion 2026 Baseline

Key Findings

1. The GN platform has identified 83 distinct data sources across five sectors, of which 47 are integrated into the live platform and 36 are on the integration roadmap [^1^].

2. Economy data scores highest (DQF 4.0) due to strong official sources: CBN, NBS, DMO, and Budget Office publish regular, well-documented data [^3^].

3. Education data scores lowest (DQF 3.2). While enrollment and examination data exist, learning outcome data at the school level is sparse, and teacher deployment data is outdated [^4^].

4. Security data (DQF 3.1) is abundant in volume but weak in verification and standardization. The same incident may be recorded differently by ACLED, CFR, SBM Intelligence, and government sources [^5^].

5. Health data (DQF 3.4) is strongest on national-level indicators (mortality, disease surveillance, immunization) but weakest on mental health, sub-national health spending, and health workforce distribution [^6^].

6. Governance data (DQF 3.5) has improved with FOIA implementation but remains inconsistent across ministries and states [^7^].

7. Approximately 40% of identified sources update less frequently than quarterly, limiting real-time analysis [^8^].

8. Only 28% of sources provide data at the LGA (local government area) level, despite LGAs being the primary unit of service delivery for health, education, and infrastructure [^9^].

9. Open data portals exist for NBS, BudgIT, and the Budget Office, but many agencies still require formal information requests or provide data only in non-machine-readable formats (PDFs, scanned documents) [^10^].

10. The 2023 Census results remain unpublished as of April 2026, leaving demographic planning based on the 2006 census and UN estimates [^11^].

11. Nigeria's National Identity Number (NIN) database has enrolled approximately 110 million Nigerians, but integration with sectoral databases (health, education, social protection) is limited [^12^].

12. Climate and environmental data is the weakest cross-cutting category, with only 3 identified sources and no national climate vulnerability atlas [^13^].

13. The platform's API has integrated 47 sources and serves data to researchers, journalists, and civic-tech developers [^14^].

14. Data licensing is inconsistent: some sources are public domain, others require attribution, and some prohibit commercial use [^15^].

15. International benchmarks (World Bank, IMF, UN agencies) provide valuable supplementary data but are typically 6–18 months behind real-time conditions [^16^].

Main Analysis

Economy Data: The Strongest Foundation

Nigeria's economy data infrastructure is the most developed of the five sectors. The Central Bank of Nigeria publishes daily exchange rates, weekly reserves data, and monthly monetary policy statistics [^3^]. The National Bureau of Statistics publishes monthly CPI, quarterly GDP, and annual national accounts [^17^]. The Debt Management Office publishes external and domestic debt stock monthly [^18^]. The Budget Office publishes appropriation acts and quarterly budget implementation reports [^19^].

Table: Economy Data Sources and Quality Assessment

Source: GN Data Source Registry [^2^]

The biggest gap is state-level sub-sector GDP. Only Lagos, Rivers, and a few other states publish reliable GDP estimates. Most state economies are black boxes [^20^].

Health Data: Strong at the Top, Weak at the Bottom

Health data is strong on national-level indicators. The National Population Commission publishes demographic and health survey data [^21^]. The National Primary Health Care Development Agency (NPHCDA) tracks facility data and immunization coverage [^22^]. The National Health Insurance Scheme (NHIS) publishes enrollment statistics [^23^].

But the gaps are significant: - Mental health data is almost entirely absent. Nigeria has an estimated 200 psychiatrists for 220 million people, but no systematic data collection [^24^]. - Sub-national health spending is poorly documented. States receive federal health transfers, but expenditure tracking at the LGA level is weak [^25^]. - Health workforce distribution data is outdated. The last comprehensive health workforce census was in 2018 [^26^].

Table: Health Data Sources and Quality Assessment

Source: GN Data Source Registry [^2^]

Education Data: Enrollment Without Learning

Education data tells us how many children are in school but not what they are learning. The Universal Basic Education Commission (UBEC) publishes enrollment and school infrastructure data [^27^]. WAEC and NECO publish examination results at the state level [^28^]. But: - School-level learning outcome data is sparse. The last national learning assessment (2018) is outdated [^29^]. - Teacher deployment data is unreliable. Ghost teachers, uneven distribution, and qualification gaps are documented but not systematically tracked [^30^]. - Private school data is weaker than public school data, yet private schools enroll 40–50% of Nigerian children in urban areas [^31^].

Table: Education Data Sources and Quality Assessment

Source: GN Data Source Registry [^2^]

Security Data: Volume Without Precision

Security data is the most voluminous but the least standardized. ACLED, CFR Nigeria Security Tracker, SBM Intelligence, government security bulletins, and local media all produce incident data, but with different definitions, coverage areas, and methodologies [^5^].

The key challenges are: - Underreporting: An estimated 40–55% of rural incidents go unrecorded [^32^]. - Inconsistent actor taxonomy: The same group may be labeled differently by different sources [^33^]. - Fatality verification: Most counts are estimates, not verified [^34^]. - Geographic precision: Only 77% of records have coordinates finer than state-level [^35^].

Governance Data: FOIA as a Catalyst

The Freedom of Information Act (2011) has improved governance data availability, but implementation is uneven [^7^]. The Bureau of Public Service Reform publishes agency performance data. The Independent Corrupt Practices Commission publishes corruption prosecution statistics. The Office of the Auditor-General publishes audit reports.

But: - LGA-level budget data is rarely published. - Procurement data on the Bureau of Public Procurement website is incomplete and hard to navigate [^36^]. - Legislative voting records are not systematically published by the National Assembly [^37^].

What This Means For Nigerians

For Citizens: You have a right to know how your government is performing. The data gaps documented here are not technical problems — they are accountability problems. When LGA budget data is missing, local officials cannot be held responsible for misspent funds. When school learning data is absent, parents cannot compare schools [^9^][^29^].

For Civil Society: The data gaps are your agenda. Organizations should prioritize advocacy for: (1) publication of the 2023 census, (2) LGA-level budget transparency, (3) school-level learning assessments, and (4) mental health data collection [^11^][^25^][^29^][^24^].

For Policymakers: Good policy requires good data. The cost of collecting and publishing standard administrative data is minimal compared to the cost of policy failure. The NBS, CBN, and DMO show what is possible when agencies prioritize data [^3^][^17^][^18^].

For Researchers: Nigeria is a data frontier. Methodological innovation — satellite-based crop monitoring, mobile-phone-based health surveys, NLP-based governance document parsing — can fill gaps that traditional data collection cannot [^14^].

For the Diaspora: The platform's API provides structured access to all integrated data. Diaspora technologists can build applications, visualizations, and tools that improve data accessibility for Nigerians at home [^14^].

Data Notes

• DQF scores are platform assessments, not external certifications.
• Source counts include only identified, trackable sources; informal data sources (WhatsApp groups, community notice boards) are not included.
• LGA-level availability is assessed for data that is actually published, not data that may exist in government files.
• The 83-source count includes international sources that provide Nigeria-specific data.
• Open data portal assessments are based on accessibility as of April 30, 2026; portal functionality may change.

Sources

[^1^]: Great Nigeria Intelligence, "Data Source Registry v4.2," internal document, April 30, 2026.

[^2^]: Great Nigeria Intelligence, "Data Quality Framework v2.3," internal document, March 2026.

[^3^]: Central Bank of Nigeria, "Statistical Bulletin," accessed May 4, 2026. https://www.cbn.gov.ng/

[^4^]: Universal Basic Education Commission, "National School Census 2023," accessed May 4, 2026. https://www.ubec.gov.ng/

[^5^]: Great Nigeria Intelligence, "Security Data Integration Assessment," internal document, April 2026.

[^6^]: National Primary Health Care Development Agency, "Facility Data," accessed May 4, 2026. https://nphcda.gov.ng/

[^7^]: Freedom of Information Act 2011 (as amended), Federal Republic of Nigeria.

[^8^]: Great Nigeria Intelligence, "Update Frequency Analysis Across Sectors," internal data, April 2026.

[^9^]: Great Nigeria Intelligence, "LGA-Level Data Availability Assessment," internal data, April 2026.

[^10^]: BudgIT, "State of States Report 2025," accessed May 4, 2026. https://yourbudgit.com/

[^11^]: National Population Commission, "2023 Census Status," accessed May 4, 2026. https://www.nationalpopulation.gov.ng/

[^12^]: National Identity Management Commission, "NIN Enrollment Statistics," accessed May 4, 2026. https://www.nimc.gov.ng/

[^13^]: Federal Ministry of Environment, "National Climate Change Policy," accessed May 4, 2026. https://www.environment.gov.ng/

[^14^]: Great Nigeria Intelligence, "API Documentation and Usage Statistics," internal document, April 2026.

[^15^]: Creative Commons, "CC BY-SA 4.0 License," accessed May 4, 2026. https://creativecommons.org/

[^16^]: World Bank, "World Development Indicators — Nigeria," accessed May 4, 2026. https://data.worldbank.org/

[^17^]: National Bureau of Statistics, "Consumer Price Index March 2026," accessed May 4, 2026. https://www.nigerianstat.gov.ng/

[^18^]: Debt Management Office, "Public Debt Data December 2025," accessed May 4, 2026. https://www.dmo.gov.ng/

[^19^]: Budget Office of the Federation, "2026 Budget — Q1 Implementation Report," accessed May 4, 2026. https://www.budgetoffice.gov.ng/

[^20^]: National Bureau of Statistics, "State GDP Report 2024," accessed May 4, 2026. https://www.nigerianstat.gov.ng/

[^21^]: National Population Commission, "Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey 2023," accessed May 4, 2026. https://www.nationalpopulation.gov.ng/

[^22^]: National Primary Health Care Development Agency, "Routine Immunization Data," accessed May 4, 2026. https://nphcda.gov.ng/

[^23^]: National Health Insurance Scheme, "Enrollment Statistics," accessed May 4, 2026. https://www.nhis.gov.ng/

[^24^]: WHO, "Mental Health Atlas 2023 — Nigeria," accessed May 4, 2026. https://www.who.int/

[^25^]: World Bank, "State Health Expenditure Tracking — Nigeria," 2024, accessed May 4, 2026. https://www.worldbank.org/

[^26^]: Federal Ministry of Health, "National Health Workforce Registry," accessed May 4, 2026. https://www.health.gov.ng/

[^27^]: Universal Basic Education Commission, "School Statistics," accessed May 4, 2026. https://www.ubec.gov.ng/

[^28^]: West African Examinations Council, "SSCE Results Analysis," accessed May 4, 2026. https://www.waecng.org/

[^29^]: UNICEF, "Nigeria Education Sector Analysis 2024," accessed May 4, 2026. https://www.unicef.org/

[^30^]: Teachers Registration Council of Nigeria, "Teacher Statistics," accessed May 4, 2026. https://trcn.gov.ng/

[^31^]: International Institute for Educational Planning, "Private Schooling in Nigeria," 2024, accessed May 4, 2026. https://www.iiep.unesco.org/

[^32^]: SBM Intelligence, "Nigeria Security Data Coverage Assessment 2025," accessed May 4, 2026. https://sbmintelligence.com/

[^33^]: Great Nigeria Intelligence, "Actor Classification Inconsistency Audit," internal data, April 2026.

[^34^]: Great Nigeria Intelligence, "Fatality Verification Triangulation Report," internal data, April 2026.

[^35^]: Great Nigeria Intelligence, "Geographic Precision Analysis — Security Data," internal data, April 2026.

[^36^]: Bureau of Public Procurement, "Contract Awards Database," accessed May 4, 2026. https://www.bpp.gov.ng/

[^37^]: National Assembly, "Legislative Records," accessed May 4, 2026. https://www.nass.gov.ng/